The flurry of tariffs announced by the US administration on 2 April this year – described as ‘Liberation Day’ by President Trump but greeted with alarm in many nations – was a seismic event for international trade. The raft of tariffs announced in April, some of which were subsequently downgraded (or in China’s case, increased), means that the average effective US tariff rate has risen from 2.4% in 2024 to 18%, the highest level since the 1930s.
The announcement came at a time when international trade was already languishing in the post-global financial crisis years, as a period of rapid globalisation began to slow. The end result is that global trade as a share of global GDP was lower in 2024 than it was in 2008.
The trade impact of US tariffs has been less dramatic than expected
Several countries beyond the US, notably China and the European Union bloc, began to put in place more restrictive trade policies and/or focus on the resilience and diversification of supply chains in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. Trump’s tariffs, in other words, are not the first significant blow to befall global trade.
Only the brave would make predictions for the future in the current environment but a new report from ACCA, The future of global trade attempts to set out the current state of play and provides valuable insights from business leaders as they deal with astonishing levels of disruption.
In a challenging world, the report is intended to help companies, finance professionals and stakeholders ‘better understand and navigate the many risks and opportunities in the global economy over coming quarters and years’.
Not so catastrophic?
The report notes that the immediate negative impact on the global economy from US tariff increases has been less dramatic than expected. Global growth largely held steady in the first half of 2025, partly because many countries are yet to retaliate in kind to the tariff hikes, but also their impact was cushioned by tariff pauses, trade deals, a weak dollar and frontloaded exports to the US ahead of the announced increases.
But there are undoubtedly significant risks ahead. ‘Over the medium to longer term, a more fragmented, less rules-based global trading system would likely to lead to slower productivity growth, higher inflation and slower growth in the global economy,’ the report states, ‘as trade and investment flow less freely to exploit comparative advantages in different economies.’
A survey of business leaders carried out for the report suggests that companies are relatively sanguine about the future. While respondents showed high levels of concern about the impact of tariffs and changes in global trade, 28% of those questioned expect their organisations to significantly increase the amount of global trade they do in the next three to five years.
The lasting impact of tariffs is yet to be seen, but it is clear from the survey that most organisations have either already moved some of their production, investment or suppliers, or plan to. And 35% of respondents say their costs are likely to increase by more than 10% in the future as a result of changes in global trade, with a further 46% expecting an increase in costs of up to 10%.
Half of respondents said AI was the top opportunity for global trade
Despite the disruption caused by tariffs, they are by no means the only barrier to international trade. Respondents to the survey identify geopolitical tension and international conflict as even greater risks in the coming years. But they also see opportunities. Half of all respondents said the use of technology to facilitate global trade – most likely including digital tools to increase sales and reduce costs, as well as make AI-driven efficiency savings – was the top opportunity for global trade in the next few years.
Overall, business leaders are overwhelmingly positive about the benefits of an open global trading system; 79% agree or strongly agree that an open global trading system is positive for their organisation, with just 7% disagreeing.
The report also includes detailed interviews from business leaders and policy experts across the globe, where they discuss the impact of trade disruption on organisations in their region, and what businesses and policymakers can do to mitigate the impact.
Cooperation across borders is the best way to achieve prosperity for all
The report stresses that ACCA will continue to advocate for global trading conditions ‘that are as friction-free as possible’, in the belief that cooperation and partnership across borders is the best way to achieve prosperity for all. Volatility in the global economy, it adds, not only causes direct harm but can also have unintended consequences if other issues, such as sustainability, move down the agenda.
‘A stable approach to global trade is vital for growth and for developing sustainable economies,’ it concludes. ‘Businesses need certainty and stability to thrive and invest, while an unstable economic environment creates challenges for business and society. The current uncertainty is inevitably harming businesses and people’s livelihoods.’
More information
Watch the session ‘Trade disruption and other headwinds – 2026 outlook’ in ACCA’s annual virtual conference Accounting for the Future. Find out more about the agenda, and register to attend live or on demand.
