Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to rise by 4.1% in 2025, the same rate as in 2024. According to the International Monetary Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook, published in October, this expansion is expected to inch up further to 4.4% in 2026. However, these projections are premised on continuing reforms and efforts at economic stabilisation in SSA countries, and these are often subject to setbacks.
The growth rates for SSA compare well to a projected global growth rate of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. They look even better when compared to the growth rate of advanced economies, which is projected to be 1.6% this year. But they lose their lustre when the region’s population growth – rising by as much as 2.3% to 2.7% a year – is taken into account. Advanced economies may be growing more slowly but they have population growth rates of less than 1%.
The region ought to grow faster, and, truly, there are outliers on the upside that are doing so: Niger, for example, is projected to grow by 6.6% this year, Rwanda by 7.1%, and Ethiopia by 7.2%. However, laggards such as Botswana (-0.9%) – struggling with dwindling revenues from diamond exports – and Equatorial Guinea (-1.6%) – suffering from overdependence on exports of hydrocarbons – temper the region’s overall growth rate.
It’s no news that SSA debt is in unsustainable territory
Vulnerabilities that have been obstacles to higher growth in the region persist.
In addition to headwinds faced this year by most economies around the world, including those driven by trade tariffs, sub-Saharan Africa continues to face its perennial economic problem of over-reliance on natural resources, which are too often exported with very little value addition, resulting in much lower earnings than potentially possible.
Price fluctuations
According to the IMF, the outlook for commodities remains uneven. This year, oil prices have fluctuated in response to trade tariffs and geopolitical shifts driven by happenings in countries like Russia and Iran. Other minerals, such as cobalt in DR Congo DR and gold in the Sahel region (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger) have led to conflict.
Conflicts also take their toll on the economies of several other countries in the region. Ongoing political conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, DR Congo and Ethiopia have not helped the region’s economy. Insurgencies in the Sahel region, Cameroon, Somalia, Mozambique and Nigeria are also a big problem, as populations are displaced and agricultural production imperilled.
The macro-economic and financial space to accelerate development remains thin
To continue to grow, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have increased borrowing from several sources, such as bilateral debts, debts from multilateral lenders, and the global capital markets. Given improved external borrowing conditions, countries like Angola, DR Congo, Kenya and Nigeria have returned to the Eurobond markets to refinance old debts and obtain new ones to fund budget deficits and development projects. Debt, however, must be taken carefully with consideration given to the resources needed to service such debts.
It’s no news that SSA debt is in unsustainable territory. According to the Global Sovereign Debt Monitor 2025, 70% of SSA countries are in the high or very high debt burden category. The worry is that debt service consumes huge chunks of government revenues, leaving little to run economies, let alone fund development.
Domestic reforms
To manage debt financing better, SSA countries need stronger domestic debt management offices, deeper local currency capital markets, innovative blended finance models, and disciplined FX-risk management frameworks – easy to say, less easy to enact. The IMF advises that enhancing debt transparency and public financial management can reduce borrowing costs, support access to innovative financing instruments, and mitigate fiscal risks.
To finance growth, SSA countries need to look harder inward. According to the IMF, there is substantial scope to increase revenues through improved tax administration and policy reforms. Nigeria is presently enjoying the benefits of such reforms with government revenues collected soaring to record highs.
While growth has stabilised, the macro-economic and financial space to accelerate development remains painfully thin. To develop at the pace it ought to, sub-Saharan Africa, though with some resilience in the macro-outlook, will have to do the hard work: that means stronger institutions, smarter regulation, cross-sector risk frameworks. For governments, regulators, corporates and professionals, the focus must shift from growth to growth with resilience.
More information
Read ACCA’s Global economic conditions survey report for Q3, 2025
