The United Arab Emirates has recently been the world’s top destination for mobile wealth, with a projected net inflow of 9,800 millionaire migrants in 2025. That puts it ahead of the US on 7,500 and Italy on 3,600, the highest-ranked European country.
But recent conflict in the Middle East has made Europe’s appeal feel more immediate, even if few wealthy expatriates are making a permanent move. For temporary returnees, the question is how to avoid tax pitfalls. For émigré millionaires considering a more permanent move, the question is which European jurisdictions currently look most attractive.
A resilient hub
So far, the evidence points more to repositioning than relocation in response to events in the Middle East. Reuters reported in March that Swiss bankers and advisers overseeing more than US$1trn in assets expect the conflict to increase inflows of private individuals’ financial assets from the Gulf to Switzerland attracted by the country’s security and stability, while cash positions booked there by private individuals and non-banks (such as family offices) from the UAE have risen by about 40% over the previous three years.
‘War has prompted precautionary reassessment and hedging’
That does not mean the UAE has lost its appeal. Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, says the current crisis needs to be kept in perspective. ‘The Iranian factor has always been there, and people who moved there knew about this dynamic,’ says Volek, who has been based in Dubai for the past five years.
That resilience matters because the UAE’s appeal was never built on tax alone. As Volek puts it, the country remains ‘incredibly tax-efficient’, but with ‘world-class education and healthcare and an amazing lifestyle’.
Temporary move
That view matches what Pasquale Salvatore, private clients partner at PwC in Italy, is seeing from the European side. Italians who have come back from Dubai are not, so far, planning to stay permanently. ‘This seems more like a temporary move for a few months,’ he explains. In other words, the first response to regional turmoil may be to create breathing space, not to redraw a family’s entire tax map.
The practical problem is that even a temporary move can have tax consequences if it drags on or starts to shift the centre of a family’s life.
Tax advisers at Grant Thornton in Italy say there has been a degree of concern among wealthy individuals living in Dubai, leading some of them to start exploring alternative European jurisdictions, including Italy.
‘In our view, however, this should not be described as a clear or permanent relocation trend, but rather as an initial wave of precautionary reassessment, hedging and contingency planning,’ says Carlotta Benedet, an associate partner at Grant Thornton. ‘For many families, the instinctive reaction was to understand what credible alternatives might be available in Europe should the regional backdrop remain uncertain for a prolonged period.’
Tripwires on tax residence
Volek says many mobile families still focus too narrowly on the 183-day test, which is usually the critical determinant of residency for most tax authorities. ‘The starting point is usually where you spend six months a year, so 180, 183 days,’ he explains. ‘A return of a month or two is usually fine. But then tax authorities can start to look at where your real nexus or sphere of influence is. That’s where it gets more technical, because for very mobile people the answer is not always obvious.’
‘They can even look at where the pet stays to determine tax residence’
That broader analysis can catch people who believe they are only passing through. ‘One area they look at is your family,’ Volek says. ‘So where do your kids go to school? Where are you a member of clubs, maybe golf clubs or other societal clubs? What is considered your principal home? I’ve heard some cases where they even look at where the pet stays. These can all be tie-breaker questions.’
The risk comes not from the UAE, which charges no tax on income, capital gains or inheritance. The potential concern is that individuals get ‘caught in the tax net of some other country’, Volek says.
European alternatives
That helps explain why this is also a story about optionality. Some families may decide to keep the UAE as their main base while shifting more assets into Europe. Others may conclude that if they do want a European alternative, they need one that offers a predictable legal and tax framework.
Italy remains central to that discussion despite the rise in its flat-tax regime from €100,000 at inception to €200,000, and then from January 2026 to €300,000. Salvatore says the increase has not killed demand. ‘It is not really material for certain wealthy people. Families are looking at Italy because of lifestyle and stability, not only its own stability but also the stability of neighbouring countries.’
‘Italy still believes in the flat-tax regime’
He also sees the survival of the regime itself as part of the appeal. ‘The amendment of the Italian law proves that the government still believes in this flat-tax regime. It has been amended only for newcomers, and nothing has been changed for those persons already in the country.’ For wealthy individuals seeking a route back into Europe, that kind of continuity can matter as much as the headline rate.
Italy is not the only option. Salvatore says those who cannot or do not want to return there may look instead at Greece or Switzerland. ‘Greece has a flat tax similar to the Italian one, but still at €100,000 per year. Switzerland, meanwhile, has the historic regime of taxation for new residents.’ Switzerland is more bespoke, he adds, but still attractive for the right type of client.
Portugal, by contrast, no longer seems as compelling as it once did. Volek says it has lost some of its earlier edge. ‘Portugal is not what it used to be in terms of tax attractiveness, particularly now that you have these lump-sum tax options in Greece, Italy and Switzerland.’
Planning, not panic
According to Grant Thornton, an equally important point is that many of those who have moved still continue to view Dubai as a highly attractive base and often express the intention to return as soon as the regional situation appears more stable again. ‘This is, in our opinion, a very important part of the picture, because it shows that Dubai’s appeal has not fundamentally disappeared,’ says Claudio Quartana, an associate partner in Grant Thornton’s global mobility department.
