Let’s be clear: for all the public talk about AI being there to augment workers rather than replace them, there is an unmistakable sense that cost cutting will unfold in companies that adopt it widely. Whether we like it or not, artificial intelligence will change work as we know it, from the bottom to the top of every organisation.
That does not mean that every redundancy will be because of it. Companies have always looked for ways to become more efficient, and we have seen in recent months that some are looking to flatten layers between senior management and workers.
It is becoming clear that as AI advances it will be capable of performing many roles, perhaps not without some form of human supervision, but with far fewer actual people required to deliver the same output.
We have spent much of the past few years worrying about graduates and entry-level jobs, whether young accountants will still become partners or whether junior lawyers will move up the ranks. Those concerns are valid and they attract attention but, increasingly, I believe we may be looking in the wrong direction.
Those who thought they were safe should perhaps be most worried
The vulnerable middle
The people who should perhaps be most worried are those who thought they were already safe. The obvious vulnerability is the middle-management layer.
They are finance managers, marketing managers, HR professionals, project managers and operations teams. They review work, coordinate departments, mentor younger staff, produce reports and make sure the company keeps moving. Much of that work is precisely what AI promises it will be able to do.
Whether the technology can do it as well is almost beside the point. If it can perform 70% or 80% of those tasks and requires fewer people to oversee it, the pressure to reduce headcount becomes enormous. Few companies will ignore the opportunity to bank the savings and efficiencies on offer.
A 45- or 50-year-old manager cannot simply reinvent themselves overnight
The corporate consequences are only half the story. What happens to the people?
Unwritten promise
For decades, professional advancement came with an unwritten promise. Qualify in a professional services firm, work hard, manage teams and eventually you reach positions with higher salaries, larger bonuses and greater security. It was a route into the professional middle class with guaranteed career progression.
The uncomfortable truth is that a 45- or 50-year-old manager cannot simply reinvent themselves overnight. They have built expertise for a world that may suddenly require fewer people with that knowledge. Starting again is harder when you have financial commitments that your career was once expected to support.
We tend to think disruption is hardest on the young. In reality, they often have more options. They can retrain, move sectors and have time on their side. Mid-career professionals have far more to lose.
The question for these workers is what comes next. The answer cannot simply be to learn how to use the latest AI tool and hope that is enough. The skills that made someone a successful manager for the past 20 years may not be those that secure their future for the next 20. They may need to move closer to the areas where human judgment still matters, such as dealing with customers and leveraging their networks to develop new business. Simply managing processes won’t be enough.
Difficult transition
That is a difficult transition to make. Someone who has spent years building a career as a manager cannot simply become a consultant, entrepreneur or specialist overnight. Many may have to rethink their careers at precisely the point when they expected to enjoy the rewards of everything they had built.
Leaders should think carefully before celebrating flatter organisations
That is why I suspect the biggest social impact of AI will not simply be on graduate recruitment. It will be what happens to an entire generation of experienced professionals who did everything they were told to do, only to discover that the safest jobs in corporate life are no longer quite so safe.
Leaders should think carefully before celebrating flatter organisations and leaner management structures. Today’s chief executives almost all emerged from exactly the layer that many companies are now questioning. That is where they learned how to lead.
AI may make companies more productive. It may create new roles and opportunities we cannot yet imagine. Before companies celebrate a leaner workforce, they should consider whether they are removing costs or the very people who will be needed to lead those businesses in the future.
And what about those who find their roles are made redundant? What happens when an entire generation of experienced professionals discovers that the career ladder they spent decades climbing no longer reaches where it used to?
